Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 12.471259 14.286911 16.245141 18.510477 21.055090 23.821264 27.052002
2025-03-30 9.967292 12.458146 15.353866 18.953898 23.293267 28.337929 34.628273
2025-04-06 8.453107 11.181246 14.509944 18.842291 24.300686 30.915589 39.501023
2025-04-13 6.926244 9.659875 13.148539 17.884569 24.096994 31.913344 42.428171
2025-04-20 6.276731 9.148433 12.952106 18.297439 25.542717 34.938444 47.945702
2025-04-27 5.722598 8.686695 12.748958 18.640290 26.865704 37.825927 53.392274
2025-05-04 5.120403 8.080838 12.272055 18.534157 27.523924 39.809943 57.678630
2025-05-11 4.563662 7.476265 11.729814 18.267327 27.902063 41.386027 61.436282
2025-05-18 4.164710 7.063967 11.421598 18.295751 28.672896 43.513203 66.027523
2025-05-25 3.862103 6.768162 11.255208 18.507090 29.700465 46.029760 71.262810
2025-06-01 3.543495 6.413202 10.962929 18.492323 30.367887 48.029156 75.808376
2025-06-08 3.227741 6.030779 10.592076 18.317670 30.761823 49.617340 79.786786
2025-06-15 3.004789 5.791250 10.441706 18.496686 31.736479 52.158975 85.372871
2025-06-22 2.878097 5.708493 10.543523 19.091740 33.403685 55.840714 92.873146
2025-06-29 2.632584 5.386140 10.209424 18.926558 33.811416 57.552220 97.353732
2025-07-06 2.288981 4.847012 9.453595 17.982567 32.862544 57.044399 98.277436
2025-07-13 2.183646 4.751056 9.476157 18.391200 34.206916 60.285155 105.336576
2025-07-20 2.077682 4.643189 9.466907 18.737846 35.455441 63.412496 112.325393
2025-07-27 1.920435 4.416648 9.218482 18.630443 35.897822 65.207083 117.173159
2025-08-03 1.757787 4.162509 8.896858 18.362635 36.033064 66.477221 121.178835
2025-08-10 1.644083 4.000378 8.739965 18.391100 36.696916 68.668711 126.816267
2025-08-17 1.559544 3.893084 8.682493 18.603458 37.702758 71.485792 133.622255
2025-08-24 1.457820 3.737474 8.515202 18.588610 38.280345 73.567233 139.221081